Henk van de Goor's Bloggers@large

Oh yeah my friends, I have been writing about A/H1N1 for some time and now I am down with it. I rarely have the flu and I knew something was wrong the minute I woke up Saturday morning with bad muscle aches all over. That and the feeling of a fever and the fact that I have a dry cough. Normally when I get the flu I get a big headache, sore throat etc. but not with this flue. Which is why I am convinced it's A/H1N1. It just really feels different than any other flu I have had in the last years.

The thing is, that I know I have a fever, but I have no idea whatsoever how bad it is: the batteries on my thermometer turned out to be empty :-(

Anyway, I'm sleeping for hours having those annoying repeating fever dreams where my mind just goes in circles all the time and where I am tossing and turning in my bed. I am taking into mind the "Home Flu Treatment Advice for the Laymen" (page 24) from the PDF called Preparing for the Coming Influenza Pandemic I posted before. Drinking lot's of fluids etc.

For now: I'm signing of and sleeping some more.

As of yesterday the Dutch government, together with the RIVM (the Dutch equivalent of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC) have decided they will no longer test all people with flue symptoms for the A/H1N1 virus, or give them anti-viral medication, such as Tamiflu. According to a spokesman for the RIVM they have decided to adopt this new policy because the number of infections in Holland has become so large, the labs that test for the virus can't handle the work. Excepted from the new policy are pregnant women, people who have a lowered immune system and people with a serious illness.

Apart from this, our Dutch Government is also coming up with a leaflet/pamphlet that is supposed to inform and prepare you for the flu. The leaflet will be send out to 8.7 million households in Holland and there also will be a TV-campaign and several newspaper ads.

If you ask me they are rather late with this: the UK government already circulated such a leaflet weeks ago.

Also, the whole timing of this new policy seems rather peculiar to me, as the summer vacation in Holland is about to end for most people and one would expect that this outbreak will actually grow exponentially in the coming months. Every health agency thinks the flu will hit hardest during the coming winter months as people's resistance get lower due to the cold weather. It is not by accident we call wintertime "flu season".

The bad part about the new policy is, that if you have a flu now, you won't know for sure if it is A/H1N1. So there is no way of telling you get it later - or not.

Scientist are now publicly debating the fact that they have underestimated the swine flu (A/H1N1). One wonders what this means. After all: the WHO has already declared A/H1N1 a pandemic. What else would they need to understand the severity of the situation? Are we being kept in the dark by authorities on purpose?

The news is getting more unsettling recently: so far the virus has been fatal for people that had a previous illness where in a weak condition already. But in England two three previously healthy persons have now died of A/H1N1. One girl, aged 6,died within 48hrs after the first symptoms. The other case involved a 64-year General Physician who had been treating swine flu patients himself. Both the little girl and the doctor are believed to have been perfectly healthy before succumbing to H1N1. Before that, a man from Essex, fought for nine days before losing his battle against the virus.

So when I look at the situation, we already have a mutation of A/H1N1 that does not respond to Tamiflu (which is not made to battle H1N1, but seemed to help as a general treatment), and we now have a possibly aggressive variant that can kill someone within 48hrs.

Time to panic? No. Time to prepare!

In a previous post (12 Monkeys part 2), I attached an interesting PDF file called dealing "Preparing for the Coming Influenza Pandemic". I still think that the information in that is valid. Also the UK government has been circulating their own pamphlet ("UK Government pamphlet: important information about Swine Flu.") trying to educate the general public about A/H1N1 (unlike the Dutch government who are clearly not taking it seriously - yet).

There is just one paragraph in there that tells it like it is:

(...) Because it’s a new virus, no one will have immunity to it and everyone could be at risk of catching it. This includes healthy adults as well as older people, young children and those with existing medical conditions.(...)

Just remember: no one is save.

Hmm, I am going to update my emergency survival kit this weekend. You never know if I need it anytime soon.

The World Health Organization has declared the swine flu officially a pandemic (or alert phase 6) on June 11th. The first flu pandemic in 41 years and infections continue to climb in the United States, Europe, Australia, South America and elsewhere. The spread of the swine flu contagion has not yet reached scary "Resident Evil" like proportions, but I really think things will get pretty hairy out there! Even the famous Wimbledon tennis tournament is effected now, with a total of 28 staff that have been asked to stay at home with suspected swine flu! Surprisingly enough it is getting quieter in the press about the flu. As if the media collectively have decided that they do not want to cause a global panic?

Sure, when you look at the figures one might think "what's the big deal?" So far "only" 337 people died from A/H1N1 - or A(H1N1) - as it is officially called. But that 337 people where in 121 countries. Also the number of the total infected has now exceeded 80,000, a top official of the World Health Organization (WHO) said this Thursday. In other words: the virus spreads across the globe like wildfire! Most of the infected are young people. Schools and homes are the places where people are most likely to be infected. Also, the virus is more similar to H5N1 avian flu rather than the seasonal flu.

So far the main antiviral flu drug, Tamiflu, seems to be working well as long as people receive it within 24hrs after the first signs of infection are established. But it is unclear how governments would battle a new mutated virus strain of A/H1N1 when it hits like it has in Denmark: scientists have established the first case of the new H1N1 influenza strain showing resistance to Tamiflu. Off course the big pharmaceutical companies are all racing to develop a cure, but no one knows when that will happen, and if they can produce large enough quantities to battle the virus when it really hits.

What people should not underestimate, is the fact that the virus is five times more aggressive than the seasonal flu. When you're hit with it, the virus will penetrate the lungs deeper and as a result five times as much people will die of it. Another mayor problem is that the virus is airborne, making it really hard to battle. You know what: suddenly all those die-hard survivalists weirdo's do not seem so weird to me anymore! And I don't care what people say; I think I might prepare myself a bit better for a disaster situation in case the shit really hits the fan!

As always there a many, many resources on the web that deal with things like urban survival or survival in more rural areas. Here is a link to a PDF file telling you a bit about how to prepare for a case like this: Preparing for the Coming Influenza Pandemic, Grattan Woodson, MD, FACP, (c) 2005. I suggest to read it carefully and also get more information on how to survive problems like this one.

Maybe it's not a bad idea to get educated ;-)