Google Chrome OS
Don't get me wrong: I love competition and the choice for consumers that comes with it. But Chrome OS is not intended to compete with Windows per se, simply because it is targeted at a different group of users. The idea and business model behind Windows is completely different and Chrome OS may become popular - but I don't think it will replace Windows. I simply do not see companies getting rid of Windows in favor of Chrome OS.
So yeah, Microsoft might lose some market share but I predict that will be mainly in the consumer market. To really hurt Microsoft there needs to be a competitor for the business market. We all know IBM tried that once with OS/2, and failed miserably.
Now, the consumer market is another animal. That's where Google has been ripping Microsoft a new asshole as they dominate the web. Google has launched the Google Chrome browser, which has become my standard browser for the web but it hasn't had the impact yet that many people predicted (or hoped for): at the moment Internet Explorer is still loosing market share, but mainly to Mozilla Firefox, not Chrome.
Android, which is a different Google project, is targeted at almost the same audience and devices as Chrome OS will be: netbooks and other mobile (phone) devices. Google admits there is an overlap between the two projects, but states that it believes that "choice will drive innovation for the benefit of everyone, including Google." I second that.
As Google explains: "Google Chrome OS is being created for people who spend most of their time on the web, and is being designed to power computers ranging from small netbooks to full-size desktop systems." That is not the average person. Or better said: that is not the average person now. But we all see how the market is shifting towards a complete "always on, always mobile" .
As I see it there will be a short-term and a long-term effect. Short term effect will be that many manufactures of cheap netdevices (netbooks, mobile phones etc.) will definitely consider Chrome OS as it cuts costs (no license needed as it is open source). But the use of it will be limited or equal to the amount of usefull applications that will developed.
So let's say I want to play the latest cutting edge games: I won't be doing that with Chrome OS. That's not what its for. Say I work for a bank: I'm sure they will not use Chrome OS. Now, if I am a consumer that travels a lot (commuting), I want a no frills lean and mean fast way of getting online. And that's where Chrome OS will score.
Oh, and by the way people: both Android and Chrome OS are based on... Linux! So actually Google is just building on existing experience with existing open source technology and I see it as proof that Linux will become mainstream in the near future. And let's not forget: Mac OS/X is based on several BSD derivatives which is a cousin of Linux.
Bottom line: does Microsoft need to worry about Google Chrome OS? Hell yes! But not for the reasons that the press is trying to make you believe.
It's more because the long-term effect I foresee.
I blogged about it before, but in back in 1995 when Microsoft launched Windows 95, I attended a press meeting with Larry Ellison CEO of Oracle. He predicted the future (of Internet) in a way when he said "the network is the computer".
What he meant was, that he predicted a shift from big 'bloathed' desktop computers to lean, mean machines that connect to the network and 'load' their applications from there. In fact your PC will become a 'dumb terminal' again (like in the old mainframe days) and all that you need will be in a virtual 'cloud computing network' (essentially: the Internet).
Back in '95 this seemed very unlikely because the infrastructure of the Internet was just to weak. We had no ADSL, cable internet was sparse and (fast) connectivity was expensive and unreliable. But low and behold: it is 2009 and the infrastructure has improved so much and costs has come down. So I believe Larry Ellison's vision will become true.
And that's where all the Google pieces come together (also Google Wave etc).. Google understands the future. Google is the Microsoft of the future.
So yes: it maybe is a hype today (explained the wrong way by the press), but it will be a reality tomorrow.
The future is bright. The future is Google online.
